Will Elon Musk post fewer than 40 times on X?

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YES if Google Trends shows a strictly greater aggregated interest score for 'Mimie Mathy' than for 'Jean-Jacques Goldman' in France over the entire UTC day September 4, 2026. This compares relative search interest on Google, not raw search counts. If the two names tie or the result is ambiguous, the market will be void and all bets refunded.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 4, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against trends.google.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 81%, based on 107 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the last month's trend data, Mimie Mathy is likely to maintain her lead over Jean-Jacques Goldman. The 18-hour window is tight, but she's already ahead, so I’ll go with YES.

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