🏛️Politics
Closes Aug 21
Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?
13%
Stable · last 24h
3388 bets · 77K credits8
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PoliticsResults Aug 15
Will Emmanuel Macron's approval rating be below 25% in the August 2026 poll?
81%
Stable · last 24h
📊 5340 bettors💎 113K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 15🤖 Context
This market resolves YES if Emmanuel Macron's confidence rating (cote de confiance) is below 25% in the Elabe “L'Observatoire politique” barometer for Les Échos covering August 2026 — that is, the share of respondents who say they trust him to address France's problems. It resolves NO if that figure is 25% or higher. The Elabe barometer for Les Échos is the sole authoritative source; other pollsters (IFOP, Ipsos, CSA…) are not used. If Elabe publishes more than one edition in the window, the August edition is used. If no Elabe edition covering August 2026 is published by the resolution date, the most recent Elabe edition available at that date is used.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes81%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 81% sure, and they nailed it.
Key facts
- Crowd probability
- 81%
- Predictions made
- 5,340
- Credits staked
- 112,959
- Comments
- 22
- Opened
- Jul 5, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 1, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 18, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
💬 22 comments
- 🪙@mel.0.maniaco.lanoBet No· 25 💎
The French clearly didn't deserve it. See you next year with a populist loser at the head of the state. The disappointment will be very, very heavy. And we will be sold to the Russians, in a country ruined by demagogues.
- 🪙@matmoi.saBet Yes· 50 💎
Emmanuel who?
- 🐷@frederic27180Bet Yes· 10 💎
Yes, he prefers jet skiing to taking care of France or the French.
- 🔥@sylvie.hypeBet Yes· 85 💎
Yes, that's for sure
- 🪙@humberto.proBet Yes· 10 💎
Oh, and it's not a surprise
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