Will Colima’s Volcán de Fuego emit ash in an exhalation?

🤖 Context

YES if a publicly available official bulletin, advisory, or news report from SMN/CONAGUA, UCOL-CUEV, CENAPRED, or a mainstream Mexican/international outlet explicitly reports that Volcán de Fuego de Colima produced one or more exhalations that emitted volcanic ash (explicitly described as 'ceniza' or 'ash') during 9:00 AM on August 16, 2026 through 9:00 AM on August 17, 2026, local time. The report must be published no later than 10:00 AM on August 17, 2026. If reports only describe steam or gas without ash, the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 16, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 56%, based on 14 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

56%

Predictions made

14

Credits staked

411

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 16, 2026

Closes

Aug 16, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 17, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 16, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 56% and NO 44%, based on 14 predictions and 411 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Colima’s Volcán de Fuego emit ash in an exhalation?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Colima’s Volcán de Fuego emit ash in an exhalation?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.