Will claude-opus-5-max be the top-ranked AI model on Aug 31?

🤖 Context

YES if the Kalshi market with ticker KXTOPMODEL-26AUG31-CLAUM is finalized with result YES. That means Kalshi determines claude-opus-5-max is ranked #1 on the LM Arena Leaderboard (using the 'Remove Style Control' setting) at 10:00 AM Eastern on August 31, 2026. The Kalshi contract's tie-break rules apply: if models tie on Rank (UB) the higher Arena Score wins, if still tied the model with more votes wins, and if still tied the earlier release wins; otherwise the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 31, 2026. The outcome will be settled against kalshi.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 35%, based on 20 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

35%

Predictions made

20

Credits staked

575

Comments

0

Opened

Aug 24, 2026

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 31, 2026

Resolution source

kalshi.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 31, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 35% and NO 65%, based on 20 predictions and 575 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against kalshi.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will claude-opus-5-max be the top-ranked AI model on Aug 31?” real-money betting?

No. “Will claude-opus-5-max be the top-ranked AI model on Aug 31?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.