Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

86%
+1% last 24h

81%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, when the Arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard is checked at 12:00 PM ET on August 24, 2026 with style control off and the Models filter, the Rank column shows 'claude-opus-5-max' as #1. Ties on Rank are broken by the models' Arena score including any underlying unrounded values, and if the leaderboard shows an ambiguous tie with no numeric score the ordering shown on the page at the check time decides. If 'claude-opus-5-max' is not listed under Models at that time the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against clutch.vip. For now, the crowd puts YES at 81%, based on 45 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledTeam Claude AI all the way!

86%
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35%
Stable · last 24h

49%
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57%
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33%
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