Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

90%
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62%
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YES if, when Arena.ai's Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard is checked with the Models filter on and style control off at 12:00 PM ET on August 31, 2026, 'claude-opus-5-high' is shown as the highest-ranked model in the Rank column. Models marked 'AutoEval' at the check time are excluded, and any ties are decided by the leaderboard's displayed Arena-score tiebreakers. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against clutch.vip. For now, the crowd puts YES at 62%, based on 21 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledNo
With only days left, it’s tough to see "claude-opus-5-high" overtaking the leaderboard. Other models are already in a strong position, making a comeback unlikely.

90%
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42%
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96%
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18%
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73%
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53%
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