ScienceResults Jul 20

Will Chile record an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 or greater before July 21, 2026?

50%

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ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Jul 20

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog lists one or more events with reported magnitude 4.6 or greater whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on July 18, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on July 21, 2026, and whose epicenter lies inside the Chile box defined for this market. Otherwise NO. If the USGS event service is unavailable at resolution time, the market will be resolved once the USGS catalog is reachable and the authoritative event list for that interval can be obtained.

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How this market resolved

Yes

50%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 50% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: USGS catalog must list ≥1 event with reported magnitude ≥4.6, origin time ≥2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 and <2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00, and epicenter inside lat ∈[-56,-17], lon ∈[-76,-66]. Observed data (from supplied USGS query result): 1 matching earthquake — 2026-07-19 14:25 UTC, M4.7, lat -33.9224, lon -73.3832. Comparison: magnitude 4.7 ≥ 4.6 (satisfies); origin time 2026-07-19T14:25:00+00:00 is within the interval [2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00) (satisfies); coordinates (-33.9224, -73.3832) lie inside the specified box (satisfies). All resolution criteria met, so YES.

Source: earthquake.usgs.gov