Will any single wildfire in France burn at least 1,000 hectares?

🤖 Context

YES if an authoritative public source reports that at least one single wildfire incident within the internationally recognised borders of France had a cumulative burned area of 1,000 hectares or more at any time between August 8, 2026 and no later than August 15, 2026, otherwise NO. Authoritative sources include Copernicus EFFIS incident reports, an official prefecture or SDIS communiqué, or a major news agency (for example AFP, Reuters, TF1) citing an official communiqué. If different authoritative sources report different area estimates for the same incident, use the figure published by EFFIS or the official prefecture/SDIS update. If a reported area equals exactly 1,000 hectares it resolves YES.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 76%, based on 45 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

76%

Predictions made

45

Credits staked

998

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 7, 2026

Closes

Aug 7, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 16, 2026

Resolution source

tf1info.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 7, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 16, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 76% and NO 24%, based on 45 predictions and 998 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against tf1info.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will any single wildfire in France burn at least 1,000 hectares?” real-money betting?

No. “Will any single wildfire in France burn at least 1,000 hectares?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.