Will any French department be under an orange or red heatwave alert between July 28 and August 3, 2026?

🤖 Context

YES if Météo‑France's official vigilance bulletins (the vigilance map and departmental bulletins on its vigilance site and archived bulletins on meteofrance.fr) show at least one French department listed with the phenomenon "Canicule" and a vigilance colour of ORANGE or ROUGE at any time between 00:00 on July 28, 2026 (CEST) and 23:59:59 on August 3, 2026 (CEST). Otherwise NO. If Météo‑France permanently changes its vigilance labelling, the market resolves YES if its official bulletins during the period explicitly state a departmental or national heatwave (fortes chaleurs) alert. If neither the vigilance site nor meteofrance.fr publish any bulletins for the period, the resolver will use Internet Archive captures of Météo‑France's official vigilance pages for the same dates.

Key facts

Crowd probability

95%

Predictions made

1,074

Credits staked

33,415

Comments

1

Opened

Jul 26, 2026

Closes

Jul 27, 2026

Resolved

Aug 1, 2026

Outcome

Yes