Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

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YES if, no later than August 21, 2026, the Constitutional Council publishes a decision that explicitly declares one or more articles or provisions of the law adopted by Parliament on 21 July 2026 (the law banning social networks for people under 15) unconstitutional or otherwise prevents their promulgation, for example by annulling or ordering that they not be promulgated. Otherwise NO. If the Council issues only a technical or admissibility ruling without annulling any provision, the market resolves NO.
Sources used to create this market
Given the timeline and the Council's recent stance, it’s unlikely they’ll strike down any provisions before the deadline. I’d bet on a NO here.

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