Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth inside a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule?

69%
+18% last 24h

56%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Jul 26YES if Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) station-level observed daily maximum temperatures for the local date July 25, 2026, as published on AEMET's website in the station/observations or "valores diarios" tables, show at least one reported maximum of 44.0 °C or higher at an AEMET station whose administrative province is Murcia, Alicante, or Valencia. Otherwise NO. If AEMET does not publish station-level observed daily maximum temperatures for July 25, 2026 on its website by the resolution time, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settled56%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 56% sure, and they got it wrong.
i'm betting no way it's hitting 44°C. even the sun's gotta take a break sometime! 😂

69%
+18% last 24h

76%
Stable · last 24h

87%
Stable · last 24h

31%
Stable · last 24h

87%
Stable · last 24h

90%
Stable · last 24h
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