🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Sep 7
Will OpenAI's market share be above 20%?
33%
-10% last 24h
1630 bets · 46.4K credits2
Details →
TechOpened Jul 24 · Results Jul 27
Will Anthropic release the next Claude Opus model before July 27?
33%
Stable · last 24h
📊 424 bettors💎 12.6K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 27🤖 Context
YES if Kalshi's market page for this market is shown as 'finalized' with an official outcome of 'YES' at 3:59 AM UTC on July 27, 2026. Otherwise NO. If the Kalshi page shows any non-final status (for example 'determined', 'disputed', 'amended', 'unavailable') or is inaccessible at that time, this market will remain unresolved.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes33%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 67% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: Kalshi's market page for ticker KXCLAUDE-OPUS-26JUL27 must be shown as 'finalized' with an official outcome of 'YES' at 03:59 UTC on 2026-07-27. Supplied observation (Kalshi data): Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: YES for KXCLAUDE-OPUS-26JUL27. Comparison: status 'finalized' == required 'finalized' AND result 'YES' == required 'YES' → condition met. The prompt's current time (2026-07-27T04:01:06.863Z) is after the 03:59 UTC resolution instant, and the supplied Kalshi snapshot shows the finalized YES result. Decisive evidence: the Kalshi entry reporting Official status: finalized and Official finalized result: YES.
Source: kalshi.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 33%
- Predictions made
- 424
- Credits staked
- 12,579
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 24, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 27, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 27, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- kalshi.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
yeah, i bet they're dropping that thing before the deadline. no way they let it drag out like a bad TV show! 😂
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