Will Algeria restore the death penalty for people who deliberately set wildfires?

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YES if, no later than October 15, 2026, a French judicial authority opens a formal judicial investigation into Anne Hidalgo in connection with alleged violence in after-school programs. This includes opening an "information judiciaire" or a judge placing her under formal investigation ("mise en examen"). Resolution will be based on official communications from the competent judicial authority or reporting from major national news agencies such as AFP, Franceinfo or Le Monde. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 53%, based on 16 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current lack of evidence for a judicial investigation against Hidalgo, it's unlikely we'll see any action by October 15. No formal inquiries mean no resolution here.

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40%
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64%
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46%
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