Will an increase to the federal excise tax on manufactured cigarettes be approved as part of the 2027 economic package?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than December 15, 2026, two or more independent national or international news outlets report that the Plenary of the Chamber of Deputies voted to approve a bill or amendment that increases the federal excise tax on manufactured cigarettes as part of the 2027 economic package. Preferably the reports cite the Chamber of Deputies' official vote record or the Diario de los Debates. Committee approvals, draft proposals, or Senate-only actions do not count. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Nov 21, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against eluniversal.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 81%, based on 16 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

81%

Predictions made

16

Credits staked

437

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 3, 2026

Closes

Nov 21, 2026

Expected resolution

Dec 16, 2026

Resolution source

eluniversal.com.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Nov 21, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Dec 16, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 81% and NO 19%, based on 16 predictions and 437 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against eluniversal.com.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will an increase to the federal excise tax on manufactured cigarettes be approved as part of the 2027 economic package?” real-money betting?

No. “Will an increase to the federal excise tax on manufactured cigarettes be approved as part of the 2027 economic package?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.