Will ChatGPT be the #1 free app in the US App Store on September 11?

48%
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38%
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Resolved: No
Results Sep 1YES if the U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes an official sanctions designation or press release, or adds an entity whose legal name includes 'Moonshot' to OFAC's Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list by 11:59 PM Eastern on August 31, 2026, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury and OFAC. Otherwise NO. If the Treasury only issues a non binding statement of intent or a threat of future sanctions without a formal OFAC designation or listing, this market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settled38%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 62% sure, and they nailed it.
hell no, 'Moonshot' sounds like a tech startup, not a sanctions target. the government's got bigger fish to fry!

48%
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43%
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33%
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84%
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54%
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