ScienceResults Jul 20

Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater occur inside the Indonesia rectangle (lat −11 to 6, lon 95 to 141) before July 21, 2026?

45%

Stable · last 24h

📊 3 bettors💎 23 at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 20

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey earthquake catalog shows one or more events with reported magnitude at least 5.5 whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on July 18, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on July 21, 2026, and whose epicenter lies inside the rectangle with latitude between −11 and 6 and longitude between 95 and 141. Otherwise NO. If the USGS event service is unavailable at resolution time, the market will be resolved once the USGS catalog is reachable and the authoritative event list for that interval can be obtained.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

45%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 55% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: the USGS FDSN query must show one or more events with reported magnitude >= 5.5 whose origin time is >= 2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00 and whose epicenter lies inside lat [-11, 6], lon [95, 141]. Target window: 2026-07-18T00:00:00Z (inclusive) through 2026-07-21T00:00:00Z (exclusive). Observed value(s): the supplied authoritative query result for that exact query returned “0 matching earthquake(s).” Comparison: 0 matching events < 1 required → condition not met. Outcome: NO.

Source: earthquake.usgs.gov