Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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91%
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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 18The market was decided by whether the official result lists Alexander Zverev as the winner of the men's singles third-round match at the Cincinnati Masters. The ATP Tour match report and multiple independent outlets show Zverev beat Terence Atmane 7-6(4), 7-6(8) and that he advanced to the fourth round. Those official and independent results meet the rule, so the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled91%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 91% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence unambiguously report that Alexander Zverev beat Terence Atmane in the Cincinnati third round. The ATP Tour match report states Zverev won 7-6(4), 7-6(8) and advanced to the fourth round; TennisMajors and Tennis.com match pages give the same result and match statistics; Tennis TV highlights also show Zverev sealing the victory. These independent reports corroborate the same concrete outcome.
Source: atptour.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled
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