Will a magnitude 5.8 or greater earthquake strike Indonesia?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog, or other authoritative seismological agencies that corroborate the same event, lists at least one earthquake with reported magnitude greater than or equal to 5.8 and epicenter in Indonesia between 00:00 UTC on August 30, 2026 (inclusive) and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 2, 2026. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 36%, based on 58 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

36%

Predictions made

58

Credits staked

1,826

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 29, 2026

Closes

Aug 30, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 2, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 30, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 36% and NO 64%, based on 58 predictions and 1.8K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a magnitude 5.8 or greater earthquake strike Indonesia?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a magnitude 5.8 or greater earthquake strike Indonesia?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.