Will a commercial tanker be reported attacked in the Strait of Hormuz?

🤖 Context

YES if, between August 14, 2026 and no later than August 21, 2026, at least one commercial tanker is publicly reported by at least two independent mainstream news organisations or by recognised maritime-security reporting bodies as having been attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A commercial tanker means an ocean-going cargo or fuel-carrying merchant vessel. Accidents, mechanical failures, groundings, or collisions do not count unless sources explicitly characterise the incident as hostile action. Examples of qualifying sources include AP, Reuters, BBC, UKMTO, or a U.S. Navy/5th Fleet statement; otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 22, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 76%, based on 34 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

76%

Predictions made

34

Credits staked

720

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 14, 2026

Closes

Aug 20, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 22, 2026

Resolution source

apnews.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 20, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 22, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 76% and NO 24%, based on 34 predictions and 720 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against apnews.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a commercial tanker be reported attacked in the Strait of Hormuz?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a commercial tanker be reported attacked in the Strait of Hormuz?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.