Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

90%
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33%
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YES if at any time on August 30, 2026 (00:00 through 23:59 US Pacific Time) the Amazon.com (US) product page for the Google Pixel 11 Pro Fold shows a buyable SKU or clearly labeled purchase option that bundles a Pixel Watch 5 (41mm or 45mm), the bundle's listed purchase price equals the Pixel 11 Pro Fold solo price, the watch is shown as included/'FREE' or $0 additional, and that bundle can be added to cart and purchased for shipment or pickup in the US. Otherwise NO. If the 'free' watch appears only as a third‑party seller add‑on, as a post‑purchase coupon/credit, or is shown but not actually purchasable (for example 'Currently unavailable' or region‑restricted), count as NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 30, 2026. The outcome will be settled against 9to5google.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 33%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledAmazon's unlikely to bundle the Pixel Watch 5 for free with the Pixel 11 Pro Fold. Given past trends, expect them to market it separately, not as a free add-on.

90%
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94%
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64%
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22%
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34%
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84%
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