Did Popocatépetl emit ash on August 20?

🤖 Context

YES if the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) 'Aviso Especial por la actividad del Volcán Popocatépetl' published no later than 10:00 on August 20, 2026 explicitly states that at least one exhalation during the period it covers included volcanic ash, using the words 'ceniza' or 'ash'. It also resolves YES if CENAPRED's official activity report for the same period states an ash-bearing exhalation, or if two or more major Mexican national news outlets clearly report an ash-bearing exhalation quoting official monitoring or satellite detection. If reports describe only steam, gas, or 'desgasificación' without 'ceniza'/'ash', the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 20, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 51%, based on 11 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

51%

Predictions made

11

Credits staked

415

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 20, 2026

Closes

Aug 20, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 20, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 20, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 20, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 51% and NO 49%, based on 11 predictions and 415 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Did Popocatépetl emit ash on August 20?” real-money betting?

No. “Did Popocatépetl emit ash on August 20?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.