
The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
61%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1
How the markets that settled that day resolved: the odds, the verdict, and what the crowd got right or wrong.

The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
61%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 58% sure, and they nailed it.
42%
Final odds
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources and the Senate’s own session record in the supplied evidence show the Senate rejected the proposed 'aide à mourir' law (motions to oppose were adopted; reports give a Senate vote to reject the text, e.g. Le Figaro’s 2026-07-07 report and Crux/BBC coverage of a third rejection). The National Assembly — not the Senate — gave final approval on 2026-07-15. No supplied source reports the Senate formally adopting the bill in its entirety by 2026-07-31.
Source: lefigaro.frResolved Aug 1

The crowd was 76% sure, and they got it wrong.
76%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 87% sure, and they nailed it.
13%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
61%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.
70%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 60% sure, and they got it wrong.
60%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 83% sure, and they got it wrong.
83%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 62% sure, and they nailed it.
62%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 76% sure, and they nailed it.
24%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 55% sure, and they got it wrong.
55%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 63% sure, and they nailed it.
63%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 69% sure, and they nailed it.
69%
Final odds
Why: The supplied 20minutos 'Gente' article pages show multiple distinct article URLs whose headlines contain the string "Kiko Rivera" and were published before the 2026-08-01 cutoff. Examples from the evidence: - https://www.20minutos.es/gente/kiko-rivera-recibe-alta-tras-sufrir-un-ictus-revela-problemas-su-parte-izquierda-gracias-mama-por-cuidar-tus-nietos_7019357_0.html (published 2026-07-27), - https://www.20minutos.es/gente/kiko-rivera-actualiza-su-estado-salud-me-encuentro-maravilla-estoy-avanzando-mejor-que-esperaba_7020405_0.html (published 2026-07-29), - https://www.20minutos.es/gente/kiko-rivera-dispuesto-llevar-los-tribunales-jessica-bueno-irene-rosales_7020472_0.html (published 2026-07-30), - https://www.20minutos.es/gente/kiko-rivera-ingresado-hospital-por-un-grave-problema-salud-no-contesta-las-llamadas-ni-los-mensajes_7017950_0.html (published 2026-07-23), - https://www.20minutos.es/gente/kiko-rivera-comunica-que-ha-vuelto-sufrir-un-ictus-mas-fuerte-han-quedado-algunas-pequenas-secuelas_7018062_0.html (published 2026-07-23). Each is a separate /gente/ article URL on 20minutos with the headline text including "Kiko Rivera", so the condition is met.
Source: 20minutos.esResolved Aug 1

The crowd was 81% sure, and they nailed it.
81%
Final odds
Why: Extracted condition: Clutch's finalized archived total cumulative train delay for the local calendar day ending Saturday 2026-08-01 must be >= 121.0 hours. Target day/window: local calendar day ending 2026-08-01. Observed value (Clutch finalized archived total): 132.9 cumulative delay hours (across 508 trains), finalized by Clutch at 2026-08-01 22:01 UTC, covering the local calendar day ending 2026-08-01 21:59 UTC. Comparison: 132.9 >= 121.0, so the condition is met. Outcome: YES.
Source: clutch.vipResolved Aug 1

The crowd was 59% sure, and they nailed it.
41%
Final odds
Why: Extracted condition: Clutch's finalized archived total for the local calendar day ending 2026-08-01 must be >= 101.00 cumulative delay hours (no rounding). Observed data (Clutch finalized): 93.3 cumulative delay hours since local midnight across 358 trains, counting each train once with its latest reported delay when >=5 minutes late. Observation timestamps in the data: 'Daily total finalized by Clutch: 2026-08-01 22:00 UTC' and 'covers the local calendar day ending at 2026-08-01 21:59 UTC', which matches the market target day. Comparison: 93.3 < 101, so the market resolves NO.
Source: clutch.vipResolved Aug 1

The crowd was 61% sure, and they nailed it.
39%
Final odds
Why: None of the supplied evidence contains the complete signed agreement text as a downloadable PDF or as HTML. The U.S. Department of Energy press release (2026-07-22) announces the 123 agreement was signed and says the agreement “will now be transmitted to Congress for review,” not that the full signed text was posted publicly. Independent reporting in the supplied pool explicitly states the text had not been released (BBC, 2026-07-23: “Text from the deal has not been made public”; Carnegie Emissary Q&A, 2026-07-23: “the administration has not yet released the full text”). The Federal Register entry (Presidential Determination published 2026-07-28) is present in the evidence but is a Presidential Determination document and does not provide the full signed agreement text in the supplied content. No source in the provided evidence shows a downloadable PDF or HTML of the complete signed agreement in English or Arabic by the deadline. Based on the supplied documents, the complete signed text was not publicly available by 5:00 PM ET on 2026-08-01.
Source: energy.govResolved Aug 1

The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
39%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 55% sure, and they nailed it.
55%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 67% sure, and they nailed it.
67%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1

The crowd was 79% sure, and they nailed it.
21%
Final odds
Resolved Aug 1
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