A galera estava 67% confiante, e errou.
67%
Probabilidade final
“No Polymarket eles são mais precisos... "Elon Musk publicará de 40 a 64 tweets de 3 a 5 de setembro de 2026?" Mesmo que esteja estável em 51%, haverá a convenção de meio mandato, ele provavelmente vai estourar.”
Por quê: Extracted condition: fewer than 40 total main-feed posts, quote posts, or reposts by @elonmusk on X between 2026-09-03 12:00 PM ET and 2026-09-05 12:00 PM ET inclusive. Matched observation(s) from the supplied Polymarket data: the mirrored market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?' is closed/resolved with outcome prices Yes=0, No=1 (i.e. Polymarket resolved to NO). Supporting observation: the '65-89 tweets' bucket for the same window resolved Yes=1, No=0, indicating the Post Counter recorded the count in the 65–89 range. Comparison: Polymarket's official resolution for the <40 question is NO (and the 65–89 bin resolved YES), so the condition 'fewer than 40' is not met. Per the rule to resolve identically to the mirrored Polymarket market, this market resolves NO.
Fonte: clutch.vipResolvido em 7 de set.