La foule était sûre à 94 %, et elle avait vu juste.
94%
Cote finale
“Au sondage toujours elle est même présidente de la république mais en réalité elle n'est que 2ème 😁”
🐯@denizA parié Oui· 25 💎
“Avec son bracelet, elle sera quand même devant ??? Les français sont sérieux ?”
🪙@peleferA parié Non· 20 💎
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: Marine Le Pen's national first-round % must be strictly greater than Édouard Philippe's in the single most-recent French national first-round poll published on or before 2026-08-05T00:00:00+02:00 from the MieuxVoter 'presidentielle2027' repository. Supplied data identifies the selected poll as ELABE (fieldwork to 2026-07-10) as the most-recent poll as of the market window and reports numeric first-round percentages: Marine Le Pen 35% and Édouard Philippe 16.5%. 35% > 16.5%, so the condition is satisfied and the market resolves YES.
La foule était sûre à 70 %, et elle avait vu juste.
70%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: the topmost poll row in the 'Main voting‑intention' table on the specified Wikipedia page, as displayed when fetched at or after 2026-08-05T00:00:00+02:00, must show PP strictly greater than PSOE. Target fetch time: >= 2026-08-05T00:00:00+02:00 (the prompt's current time 2026-08-04T22:00:58.643Z = 2026-08-05T00:00:58.643+02:00, which meets the requirement). Observed topmost poll row from supplied data: EM-Analytics/Electomanía (fieldwork 30 Jun–1 Aug 2026) shows PP = 32.5 and PSOE = 27.2. Comparison: 32.5 > 27.2 (strict). Both percentages are present and not equal to the displayed precision, so the market resolves YES.
La foule était sûre à 84 %, et elle avait vu juste.
84%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: The Kalshi market KXATPMATCH-26AUG03DAMTSI-TSI must be shown on Kalshi as finalized and settled to Yes. Target: the Kalshi market's finalized result for that exact ticker. Observed value(s): from the supplied Kalshi data for KXATPMATCH-26AUG03DAMTSI-TSI — Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: YES. Comparison: the market is finalized and its official result is YES, which satisfies the rule's condition, so the correct resolution is YES.
La foule était sûre à 50 %, et elle s'est trompée.
50%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : The supplied results pages list Demi Vollering inside the top five on Stage 4 (the 21km individual time trial). ProCyclingStats shows Vollering placed 3rd on Stage 4, and the Cyclinguptodate results article reports the same (Reusser 1st, Nooijen 2nd, Vollering 3rd). Both sources are dated 2026-08-04, so the evidence supports YES.
La foule était sûre à 57 %, et elle avait vu juste.
43%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: Toy Story 5's Weekend Gross > The Odyssey's Weekend Gross on Box Office Mojo's Mexico weekend chart for Weekend 2026W30 (the fetched page shows weekend labeled July 24–26, 2026). Observed values on that page: The Odyssey — Weekend Gross = $7,531,548; Toy Story 5 — Weekend Gross = $2,221,000. Applying the rule (use largest entry per title; both appear), $2,221,000 is not strictly greater than $7,531,548, so the condition is false and the market resolves NO.
La foule était sûre à 85 %, et elle avait vu juste.
85%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Multiple independent news sources in the supplied evidence record Pauline Ferrand‑Prévot as starting Stage 4. La République des Pyrénées (published 2026-08-04) lists her scheduled start time at 17:10. Velo/Outside published the Stage 4 start times (Aug 3) for the event. Ouest‑France’s live coverage of the Stage 4 time trial (4 Aug 2026) records the stage result and shows Pauline Ferrand‑Prévot placed 34th (+2'13''), which confirms she rode the stage. These independent, dated reports corroborate that she had a recorded start time and was recorded as having started the stage.
La foule était sûre à 91 %, et elle avait vu juste.
91%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: Open-Meteo daily.temperature_2m_max at lat 19.4326, lon -99.1332 for 2026-08-03 must be numeric and >= 25.0 °C. Observed value from the supplied Open-Meteo data: 2026-08-03 max = 27.8 °C (recorded). Comparison: 27.8 °C >= 25.0 °C, so the condition is satisfied → YES.
La foule était sûre à 65 %, et elle avait vu juste.
35%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: daily.temperature_2m_max for 2026-08-03 (Open-Meteo, lat 40.7128 lon -74.006) >= 29.0 °C. Observed value (array element for 2026-08-03): daily.temperature_2m_max = 28.4 °C (marked recorded). Comparison: 28.4 °C < 29.0 °C, so the condition is not met. Therefore outcome = NO.
La foule était sûre à 55 %, et elle avait vu juste.
45%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: daily.temperature_2m_max for 2026-08-03 at lat 40.4168 / lon -3.7038 must be >= 33.0 °C. Supplied observation: 2026-08-03 daily max = 32.3 °C (recorded). Comparison: 32.3 < 33.0, so the condition is not met. Therefore the market resolves NO.
La foule était sûre à 71 %, et elle avait vu juste.
71%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: Open‑Meteo 'temperature_2m_max' for 2026-08-03 >= 34.0 °C. Observed value from supplied Open‑Meteo data: 2026-08-03 temperature_2m_max = 35.7 °C (recorded). Comparison: 35.7 ≥ 34.0 → condition satisfied, so the market resolves YES.
La foule était sûre à 65 %, et elle s'est trompée.
35%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: Binance BTCUSDT last executed trade price at or before 2026-08-04 10:00:00 UTC >= USD 63,200. Target instant: 2026-08-04 10:00:00 UTC. Observed value (from supplied Binance hourly data; the data states each hourly value is the price at that exact instant): 2026-08-04 10:00 UTC = USD 63,603.73. Comparison: 63,603.73 >= 63,200 → true. Conclusion: YES.
La foule était sûre à 83 %, et elle avait vu juste.
17%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: 'Toy Story 5' must be listed at Rank 1 in Box Office Mojo's France weekend box office chart for Jul 29–Aug 2, 2026 (2026W30). Target window: July 29–August 2, 2026. Observed data: the supplied Box Office Mojo table for 2026W30 (France) shows Rank 1 = Spider-Man: Brand New Day, and Rank 3 = Toy Story 5 (Weekend Gross $1,283,000; Total Gross $33,663,000). No tie at Rank 1 includes Toy Story 5. Comparison: Toy Story 5 is Rank 3, not Rank 1, so the condition is not met. Verdict: NO.
La foule était sûre à 52 %, et elle avait vu juste.
48%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: Toy Story 5 must have a strictly higher weekend gross than Moana on Box Office Mojo's Spain weekend chart for 2026W31 (market text: Jul 29–Aug 2, 2026). Target chart/date: Box Office Mojo Spain weekend 2026W31 (displayed on the page as July 31–August 2, 2026). Observed values on that chart: Moana — Weekend Gross $394,000 (Rank 2); Toy Story 5 — Weekend Gross $342,000 (Rank 3). Comparison: $342,000 (Toy Story 5) is less than $394,000 (Moana), so Toy Story 5 does not have a strictly higher weekend gross. Therefore the market resolves NO.
La foule était sûre à 72 %, et elle avait vu juste.
28%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: Market resolves YES if Kalshi ticker KXATPMATCH-26AUG01KOVBOR-KOV is finalized as YES for the binary condition 'Will Aleksandar Kovacevic win the Kovacevic vs Borges: Round Of 128 match? — Aleksandar Kovacevic'. Target: the Kalshi ticker finalization (the official finalized result). Observed value(s): Kalshi official status: finalized; Official finalized result: NO. Comparison: the authoritative Kalshi ticker is finalized and its official finalized result is NO (i.e., not YES for Kovacevic). Therefore the market resolves NO.
La foule était sûre à 85 %, et elle avait vu juste.
85%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: market resolves YES if Magdalena Frech is recorded as the winner of Frech vs Jeanjean (Round of 128) after play has begun, and this contract only settles once Kalshi ticker KXWTAMATCH-26AUG02FREJEA-FRE is finalized with an official YES/NO. Target: the Kalshi ticker finalization for that match. Observed value (from supplied Kalshi ticker data): Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: YES. Comparison: official finalized result equals YES, which satisfies the condition. Conclusion: YES.
La foule était sûre à 61 %, et elle avait vu juste.
39%
Cote finale
Pourquoi : Extracted condition: This contract resolves YES iff Kalshi's market KXATPMATCH-26AUG02ZHEKEC-ZHE is finalized on Kalshi with an Official finalized result of 'YES'. Target observation: Kalshi's 'Official finalized result' for ticker KXATPMATCH-26AUG02ZHEKEC-ZHE. Observed value (from supplied Kalshi data): Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: NO. Comparison: the official result is NO (not YES), therefore per the market rule this contract resolves to NO.
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