Der Rückblick · 8. August 2026

Warum: ESPN's match page for the fixture (gameId 761469) displays the final score as New England Revolution 0, Houston Dynamo 2 (FT). That unambiguously shows New England scored fewer goals than Houston, so the answer to whether New England scored more goals is NO.

Warum: Extracted condition: Kalshi ticker KXWTAMATCH-26AUG08KOSSWI-SWI must be finalized with outcome YES (i.e., official match result lists Iga Świątek as the winner). Target: the Kalshi ticker's official finalized result. Observed value(s): Kalshi data shows Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: YES. Comparison: the official finalized result equals YES, so the market condition is satisfied -> outcome YES.

Warum: Multiple independent outlets report the transfer was completed and announced on 8 Aug 2026, two days after the 6 Aug 18:00 BST cutoff. Earlier reports on 5–6 Aug only indicated fee agreement/medical with paperwork pending, not completion or registration. Therefore he had not completed the move nor been registered by the deadline.

Warum: Extracted condition: The market resolves YES only if Kalshi ticker KXWTAMATCH-26AUG08PEGSHN-PEG is marked 'finalized' with a final settlement of YES (i.e., Kalshi records Jessica Pegula as the match winner). Target observation: the Kalshi ticker's official finalized result. Observed value (from supplied Kalshi data): Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: NO. Comparison: the final settlement is NO (not YES), therefore under the market's rule the correct resolution is NO.

Warum: Extracted condition: The Kalshi ticker KXITFWMATCH-26AUG06VANSIE-SIE must reach status 'finalized' and finalize with a 'Yes' settlement ($1.00) for this market to resolve YES. Target: the Kalshi market finalization for Vandewinkel vs Sieg (W100 Landisville PA Round of 16). Observed values from the supplied Kalshi data: Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: NO. Comparison: The ticker is finalized but the final result is NO (not Yes/$1.00), therefore under the market's resolution rule this market resolves NO.

Warum: Multiple independent news outlets reporting on 2026-08-07 state that UNAM's Dirección General de Administración Escolar habilitó the 'TU SITIO' portal on 7 August so invited aspirantes could log in with their personal clave to obtain their cita (appointment) for the in-person Examen de Control. Examples from the supplied evidence: Infobae (07‑08‑2026) reported the portal was habilitated "la tarde de este 7 de agosto" for nearly 60,000 aspirants; El Imparcial (07‑08‑2026) said UNAM "habilitó este viernes 7 de agosto las citas" in TU SITIO; N+ (updated 07‑08‑2026) and ViveUSA (07‑08‑2026) likewise reported the system was enabled on 7 August and aspirants could access TU SITIO to obtain their exam cita. These contemporaneous, independent reports corroborate that TU SITIO opened and was processing aspirant registrations/appointment bookings on 2026-08-07.

Warum: The Senate confirmed Todd Blanche in a 50–49 roll call vote recorded at 4:17 AM on Saturday, August 8, 2026 — after the 11:59 PM ET deadline on August 7. Independent reports also state the confirmation occurred in the early hours of Saturday.

Warum: The first clear, dated announcements that Altay Bayindir joined Celta Vigo on loan were published on 7 August 2026. Earlier coverage on 5 August described the move as ‘set to sign’/‘to join,’ indicating it was not yet completed. Therefore, by 2026-08-05 23:59:59+02:00, he had not joined Celta de Vigo.

Warum: Multiple independent, credible outlets published that The Ribbon Hero would premiere on Netflix on 2026-08-08 and that the release is worldwide/Netflix-original (Crunchyroll, TodayScreening, TheWrap, El Financiero, La Razón). Those reports explicitly give the same concrete date (2026-08-08) and state Netflix availability, which (per the arbiter's corroboration rule) establishes that the film was playable on Netflix in Mexico at some time on 2026-08-08. No supplied source reported a postponement, cancellation, or regional exclusion.

Warum: Extracted condition: Binance BTC/USDT last executed trade price with timestamp <= 2026-08-08T10:00:00Z must be >= $65,000 to resolve YES. Target instant/window: 2026-08-08 10:00:00 UTC (inclusive). Observed data matched: Binance hourly series contains 2026-08-08 10:00 UTC = 64,994.31 USDT. Comparison: 64,994.31 < 65,000, so the condition is not met. (The 11:00 UTC observation is 65,005.88 but is after the cutoff and excluded.)

Warum: Multiple independent French news outlets report that Météo‑France placed départements in 'vigilance orange' for canicule on Saturday 2026-08-08. CNEWS and Ouest‑France explicitly state 12 départements were in orange for Saturday 8 August (CNEWS notes the vigilance was in place from 06:00 and not expected to be lifted that day), and TF1 likewise reports twelve départements in orange for that day. These independent reports corroborate that at 12:00 CEST on 2026-08-08 at least one metropolitan département was under vigilance orange for canicule.

Warum: Yes. Within the window, Yemen’s Houthi forces attacked commercial vessels in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden. On July 28, 2026, the Houthis claimed a ballistic missile attack on the Saudi oil/chemical tanker NCC Ghazal in the Red Sea; UKMTO reported a nearby explosion with the crew safe. Independent maritime intelligence (Windward) and analysis (Long War Journal) also list NCC Ghazal among Saudi tankers struck in late July. Further, on August 5, 2026, the Houthis claimed additional strikes on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, with UKMTO reporting an explosion heard by a tanker in the Gulf of Aden the same day, reinforcing that such Houthi attacks occurred during the specified period.

Warum: Multiple independent trackers on and immediately before Aug. 7, 2026 show Trump’s national approval average around 38–39%, well below 42%. Ballotpedia explicitly states its index is a 30-day trailing average and reported 39% at the end of July, and daily updates since include similarly low polls. Nate Silver’s aggregate (Aug. 6) and RealClearPolitics’ average cited Aug. 7 also sit below 42%, confirming the 30-day average could not have exceeded 42% on Aug. 7.

Warum: Multiple independent, credible sources in the provided evidence record the final score as Gotham FC 1, San Diego Wave FC 0 (Jaedyn Shaw 44') and describe Gotham FC as the winner. Examples: ESPN match page shows FT 1-0 (Gotham), the San Diego Wave recap is titled “San Diego Wave FC Falls to Gotham FC…lost 1-0,” Gotham FC’s official recap describes a 1-0 home win, Fox Sports boxscore shows GOT 1 SAN 0 (FINAL), and OurSportsCentral reports a 1-0 Gotham victory. Therefore the official match result did not list San Diego Wave FC as the winning team.

Warum: Extracted condition: USGS must record Kilauea as NORMAL at any time strictly after 2026-08-05T00:00:00Z and strictly before 2026-08-08T00:00:00Z. Target window: (2026-08-05T00:00:00Z, 2026-08-08T00:00:00Z). Observed data (USGS feed retrieved 2026-08-08 06:01 UTC): “Kilauea: ADVISORY — level unchanged since 2026-07-29 13:01:54 UTC.” The feed's TIMING note says an “unchanged since” timestamp before the window start means the level was constant through the entire window. Since Kilauea was ADVISORY (not NORMAL) throughout the window, there is no USGS record of NORMAL in that interval → NO.

Warum: Extracted condition: USGS must list ≥1 earthquake with magnitude ≥5.5 whose epicenter is located in Indonesia and with origin time ≥2026-08-05T00:00:00Z and <2026-08-08T00:00:00Z. Observations from the supplied USGS query covering that window: (1) 2026-08-05 21:41 UTC, M5.6 — 40 km SW of Sarangani, Philippines (lat 5.1283, lon 125.227); (2) 2026-08-05 04:14 UTC, M6.3 — 32 km SW of Sarangani, Philippines (lat 5.1812, lon 125.276). Both events meet the magnitude (≥5.5) and time criteria but their reported epicenter locations are in the Philippines, not Indonesia. No USGS-listed earthquake in the supplied data meets the required ‘located in Indonesia’ condition during the window, so the market resolves NO.

Warum: The supplied evidence contains no Senate roll-call record showing final passage. The official legislative page for S.4668 (Protect College Sports Act) shows its latest Senate action as a cloture motion on 2026-08-05 and lists the bill status as Introduced, with no entry showing ‘Passed’ or ‘Agreed to’. Contemporaneous reporting (The Hill, 2026-08-07) describes the bill as still holding up the Senate’s path to recess and Senate leaders seeking consent to move forward, i.e. the measure remained pending as of Aug. 7. Multiple news items in the pool report negotiations and sponsorship comments but do not report any recorded Senate roll-call with result “Passed” or “Agreed to” by the deadline. On the basis of the official bill status and same-day reporting in the provided evidence, the Senate had not recorded final passage of the NIL bill by 11:59 PM ET on August 7, 2026.

Warum: Multiple independent news outlets in the provided evidence (Infobae, Milenio, Informador) report that UNAM's Dirección General de Administración Escolar published the official schedule and procedure for the Examen de Control Presencial. The reports (dated 2026-08-07) state UNAM posted the dates and venues (León, Oaxaca, Tijuana, Ciudad de México; 12–19 August), made available program-by-program lists with the minimum score (eligibility criteria) on the Concurso de Selección microsite, and enabled the 'TU SITIO' portal (from 7 Aug) to issue individual appointment documents that show assigned date/time/sede, croquis and required documentation — i.e. an official calendar plus step‑by‑step instructions covering dates, locations and candidate eligibility. These accounts are dated on or before 2026-08-07, so by the market deadline UNAM had published the requested information.

Warum: Post-match reports in the supplied evidence record Tigres UANL as the winner. ESPN’s match pages for gameId 401863593 show the final status as “FT-Pens” and state “Tigres UANL win 4-2 on penalties,” indicating Minnesota United FC was not recorded as the match winner after the final whistle (including after the penalty shootout). No supplied source reports Minnesota as the winner.