The Recap · September 9, 2026

Why: Extracted condition: Kalshi ticker KXNETFLIXRANKSHOW-26SEP07-DEA must be marked 'finalized' with an official YES result. Kalshi's settlement rule ties that YES to Netflix's Top 10 US Shows chart published on 2026-09-08 (for the week ending 2026-09-07) listing 'Death of a Pastor's Wife' at position #1 (ties allowed). Observed data (from supplied Kalshi page): Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: YES. Comparison: Kalshi's official finalized result is YES, which satisfies the market's settlement condition, therefore outcome = YES.

Why: Extracted condition: Kalshi ticker KXNETFLIXRANKSHOW-26SEP07-DEA must be marked 'finalized' with an official result of YES (Kalshi's finalization is the authoritative settle), based on whether 'Death of the Pastor's Wife' is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 U.S. TV chart for Sep 7, 2026 (chart published Sep 8, 2026). Observed value(s): Kalshi ticker KXNETFLIXRANKSHOW-26SEP07-DEA — Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: YES. Comparison: Official finalized result == YES, which satisfies the market's resolution condition. Therefore outcome = YES.

Why: Extracted condition: The first reading of Apple Music Mexico — Most Played observed at or after 2026-09-09T10:00:00+00:00 must list track title "BbY WOW" by artist string "KAROL G, Judeline & rusowsky" as #1. Target instant/window: at or after 2026-09-09T10:00:00+00:00. Observed reading (from supplied data) as of 2026-09-09 11:01 UTC: #1: "BbY WOW" — KAROL G, rusowsky & Judeline. Comparison: Track title matches case-insensitively. The market requires the artist string to match (case-insensitive, trimmed). Expected artist string: "KAROL G, Judeline & rusowsky". Observed artist string: "KAROL G, rusowsky & Judeline" — these are not identical (ordering of collaborators differs), so the artist string does not match per the rule. Therefore the condition is not met and the market resolves NO.

Why: Extracted condition: Brent closing price for calendar date 2026-09-04 (FRED series DCOILBRENTEU) >= $89.00. Rule substitution: if FRED has no value for 2026-09-04, use the most recent prior business day's value shown on FRED. Supplied FRED data contains no 2026-09-04 entry; the most recent prior business day shown is 2026-09-01 with value 96.02 USD/barrel. Comparison: 96.02 >= 89.00 → TRUE. Therefore the market resolves YES.

Why: Extracted condition: Binance BTC/USDT last executed trade price at or before 2026-09-09T10:00:00Z must be >= $79,500.00. Target instant: 2026-09-09 10:00:00 UTC. Supplied Binance hourly observations include: 2026-09-09 09:00 UTC = 79,698.02 and 2026-09-09 10:00 UTC = 78,952.01. The last executed trade at or before 10:00 is the 10:00 reading (78,952.01). Comparison: 78,952.01 < 79,500.00, so the condition is not met => NO.

Why: Multiple independent news outlets report that Spain’s State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), on the basis of provisional national data for the period 1 June–31 August 2026, found meteorological summer 2026 to be the warmest in the national long-term series (since 1961). Sources (EFE, Ecoavant, The Olive Press, Infobae and Euronews) consistently cite AEMET’s provisional result (≈+2.5 °C anomaly vs. 1991–2020). These independent, credible reports establishing the same concrete outcome were available before or by the 12:00 CEST cutoff on 2026-09-07 and no supplied source contradicted them, so the correct settlement is YES.

Why: Multiple independent news outlets reported the 24 August 2026 Pomas event as a tornado, and the French tornado observatory KERAUNOS carried out a damage analysis that explicitly concluded the event was a tornado rated EF3. KERAUNOS' analysis (noted in its site’s 28 Aug 2026 item) provides an explicit confirmation; mainstream outlets (CBS, AP, JPost/Reuters and others) likewise reported the phenomenon as a tornado. This corroborated, dated evidence establishes that the event had been explicitly identified as a confirmed tornado by the resolution deadline.

Why: Multiple independent news sources in the supplied evidence report that King Harald V died on 2026-08-28 while hospitalized after suffering a bloodstream/bacterial infection. El País publishes an Aug 28, 2026 death notice; other supplied pieces (Hola, Town & Country) describe his death, lying in state and funeral arrangements. Because he died on 2026-08-28 while in hospital, he was not discharged alive after treatment on or before 2026-09-08.

Why: Multiple independent episode recaps for the 8 September 2026 broadcast report that Jacques and Charlotte were the only contestants eliminated, while Lola appeared in teams, strategized, and voted. Therefore, Lola Labesse was not eliminated and advanced to the next episode.

Why: Multiple independent news outlets in the supplied evidence report that Malick Fofana completed a transfer to Sunderland on Deadline Day (reports of agreement/medical and a club announcement) and explicitly state Arsenal considered but did not complete a move. Key pieces: Sky Sports: "Sunderland finally complete signing..." (deadline-day timeline and club announcement); SPORF: "Sunderland have reached an agreement... Medical completed"; FootballWhispers (updated 2026-09-01): Arsenal's interest was overtaken by Sunderland who agreed personal terms and a fee; Evening Standard: Arsenal opted against pursuing the deal and Sunderland moved in. Those independent, contemporaneous reports establish that Fofana did not complete a move to Arsenal on or before 2026-09-08.

Why: Extracted condition: Kalshi ticker KXWTAMATCH-26SEP08PEGNAV-NAV must be marked finalized and its final settlement recorded by Kalshi must be YES. Target: the Kalshi market finalization for ticker KXWTAMATCH-26SEP08PEGNAV-NAV (the market's official finalized result). Observed value(s) (from supplied Kalshi data): Official status = finalized; Official finalized result = NO. Comparison: required final settlement = YES, observed final settlement = NO. Conclusion: outcome = NO. (Decisive observation provided by Kalshi: 'Official finalized result: NO'. No date for the finalization was included in the supplied data, so decisiveEvidenceDate is null.)

Why: Extracted condition: 'Carlos Alcaraz wins the Shelton vs Alcaraz professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open men's singles quarterfinal after at least one ball is played.' Target: Shelton vs Alcaraz US Open men's quarterfinal (market ticker KXATPMATCH-26SEP08SHEALC-ALC; date encoded in ticker 2026-09-08). Observed data (from supplied source): Kalshi official status = finalized; Official finalized result = NO. Comparison: the authoritative finalized result is NO (Alcaraz did not win), so the condition is not met and the market resolves NO.