The Recap · August 25, 2026

Why: Extracted condition: Binance BTC/USDT spot last-traded price at 2026-08-25T22:00:00Z must be >= 78,000. Target instant: 2026-08-25 22:00:00 UTC. Observed value matched from supplied data: 2026-08-25 22:00 UTC = 78,569.99 USDT. Comparison: 78,569.99 >= 78,000 → TRUE. Therefore outcome = YES.

Why: TF1 (a national French broadcaster) lists episode pages titled “Emission 01 (Partie 1) du 25 août 2026” (1h02) and “Emission 01 (Partie 2) du 25 août 2026” on its Koh-Lanta site, i.e. full-length episode parts dated 2026-08-25. Independent French outlets (Sortiraparis, Programme‑TV, Téléstar, La Provence, etc.) also reported the premiere was scheduled on TF1 on 25 August 2026. The broadcaster’s own episode pages dated 2026-08-25 together with multiple independent press reports establish that a national channel (TF1) broadcast the premiere in France on 2026-08-25.

Why: Multiple independent news outlets in the supplied evidence report that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez convened and chaired an extraordinary meeting of the National Security Council on 25 August 2026 to analyse the situation in Ceuta. RTVE (25 Aug) explicitly reports the Council 'ha analizado este martes' the situation in Ceuta, gives the start time and lists attendees; Agenzia Nova (dated 25 Aug) states Sánchez 'chairs the first Security Council meeting' on the Ceuta crisis; Spain in English (25 Aug) likewise reports Sánchez convened the NSC on Tuesday morning. EFE, Politico and other outlets in the pool reported the convocation in advance. With three or more independent, credible outlets corroborating the same dated outcome, the market condition is satisfied.

Why: Extracted condition: The #1 show on Netflix's weekly Global 'Shows | English' chart published on 2026-08-25 must have a published 'Views' value >= 15,000,000. Target chart publication date: 2026-08-25. Observed data (from supplied source): Kalshi ticker KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26AUG24-15 — Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: NO. The market's rule requires this market to resolve identically to Kalshi once Kalshi finalizes. Kalshi has finalized with result NO, indicating the condition (>=15,000,000 views for the #1 show on the 2026-08-25 Global 'Shows | English' chart) was not met. Therefore outcome: NO.

Why: Multiple independent contemporaneous sources in the supplied evidence report that the Spanish Government (Council of Ministers) declared a 'situación de interés para la seguridad nacional' applying to Ceuta on 25 August 2026 and designated a single command / functional authority (Ángel Víctor Torres). RTVE and Europa Press explicitly state the Government declared the situation and named Torres as mando único; the Moncloa press note and the PSOE statement in the pool also confirm the Council of Ministers' action. These corroborating, same-day reports establish that the official declaration applying to the city of Ceuta was issued on 2026-08-25.

Why: Multiple independent, credible sources — including the official La Moncloa press release and reporting by 20minutos, Newtral, Infobae, ABC and others in the supplied evidence — state that on 25 August 2026 the Council of Ministers approved a Royal Decree declaring a "situación de interés para la seguridad nacional" in Ceuta and constituting/activating a 'mando único' (headed by Ángel Víctor Torres) to coordinate the state response in the city. Those contemporaneous, independent reports corroborate that the government formally established and activated the mando único on 2026-08-25.

Why: The Spanish Government's official agenda for 25 August 2026 (La Moncloa) records that Pedro Sánchez would preside the reunión del Consejo de Ministros at 10:00 “que se celebra en el Complejo de la Moncloa” (the Moncloa/Palacio de la Moncloa). Independent Spanish news outlets (laSexta, Antena3, Heraldo) reported the government's meetings that morning and referenced the Palacio/Complejo de la Moncloa; Antena3's coverage includes a caption referring to a press conference convened after the Consejo de Ministros, indicating the meeting did convene and was held on 2026-08-25. The official agenda plus multiple independent news reports corroborate the meeting and its recorded location.

Why: Extracted condition: Canacine's weekend chart labelled 'Taquilla del 20 al 23 de agosto 2026' must list 'Spider-Man: Un Nuevo Dia' at rank #1. Target window/label: weekend 20–23 August 2026. Observed data (from the supplied Canacine page titled 'Taquilla del 20 al 23 de agosto 2026'): #1 is 'La Noche Del Demonio: Estan Entre Nosotros' (Esta sem. $71.38 MDP; Esta sem. 931.73 mil asistentes). 'Spider-Man: Un Nuevo Dia' appears at #2 (Esta sem. $66.30 MDP; Esta sem. 808.99 mil asistentes). Comparison: 'Spider-Man: Un Nuevo Dia' is ranked #2, not #1 on the specified weekend chart, so the market resolves NO.

Why: The Tubefilter 'Top 50 Most Subscribed YouTube Channels Worldwide' chart for the week of 08/23/2026 (data via GospelStats) lists Lucan Pevidor as the #1 channel with 2,000,000 "Subscribers this week." The published Top 50 for that week shows the full ranking and does not list a channel named 'MAT' at #1 or tied for #1. Therefore, based on the supplied chart, MAT did not rank #1 that week.

Why: Extracted condition: 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' must be shown at Rank 1 on Box Office Mojo's US weekend chart for week 2026W34 (covering Aug 21–23, 2026). Target window: Aug 21–23, 2026. Observed value: Box Office Mojo's 2026W34 weekend chart lists 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' at Rank 1 (row: Rank=1, Release='Spider-Man: Brand New Day', Weekend Gross=$39,000,155). Comparison: the film appears at Rank 1 on the specified weekend chart, so the market resolves YES.

Why: The Tubefilter chart for the week of 08/23/2026 (data by GospelStats) lists RazoVlogs with "Subscribers this week: 400,000" and Mariano Razo with "Subscribers this week: 300,000," so RazoVlogs' weekly subscribers number is strictly greater.

Why: Multiple independent outlets report that the heatwave which began on 2026-07-28 in France officially ended on 2026-08-19, for a total of 23 days, which is equal to the 23-day duration of the July 1983 heatwave. Since it was not strictly longer than 1983, the answer is NO.

Why: Extracted condition: Kalshi market KXANTHSHARE-26AUG17-3.5 must be marked 'finalized' with an official result of YES to resolve YES; otherwise the market resolves NO. Target observation per rules: OpenRouter 'AI Market Share' (by model author) for the week of Aug 17, 2026 using the Monday 10:00 AM ET update. Observed (from supplied Kalshi data): Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: NO. Comparison: the ticker is finalized but its official finalized result is NO (not YES), so under the market's resolution rule the contract resolves NO.

Why: Extracted condition: Kalshi ticker KXDEEPSHARE-26AUG17-27 must be marked "finalized" with an official result of YES (the underlying measurement is OpenRouter 'AI Market Share' for the week of Aug 17, 2026 at the Monday 10:00 AM ET update). Target/instant: week of Aug 17, 2026 (Monday 10:00 AM ET update). Observed from supplied Kalshi data: Official status = finalized; Official finalized result = NO. Comparison: official result is NO, which does not satisfy the required YES, so the market resolves NO.

Why: Mexico's SMN advisory (WebAviso) explicitly states “LA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL DIEZ-E SE HA INTENSIFICADO A LA TORMENTA TROPICAL JULIO” with emission time 2026-08-25 03:00 horas (09:00 GMT). The U.S. National Hurricane Center discussion likewise states the system “has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Julio” with an initial intensity at 25/0900Z (09:00 UTC = 03:00 Mexico City time). Both sources record the upgrade on 2026-08-25 at 03:00 local, which is before the 06:00 local cutoff, so the system was designated a tropical storm on or before the deadline.

Why: The video's YouTube watch page (re-fetched live) as supplied shows the LeHuffPost video 'This is why Canadairs are so hard to come by' with 310,139 views (310K), and the page lists the upload date Jul 26, 2026. That displayed public view count is below 500,000, and none of the supplied sources show the watch-page view count reaching ≥500,000 by the cutoff. Therefore the threshold was not met by the deadline.

Why: Extracted condition: Binance BTC/USDT most-recent executed trade price with timestamp <= 2026-08-25T10:00:00.000Z must be >= $77,000. Target instant/window: 2026-08-25 10:00:00 UTC. Supplied data note: hourly observations are the price at that exact instant, quoted in USDT (treated as USD per rule). Observed value matched: 2026-08-25 10:00 UTC = 79,187.2 USDT. Comparison: 79,187.2 >= 77,000 → condition satisfied. Therefore outcome = YES.