Will Xi Jinping and Donald Trump meet face-to-face?

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YES if Xi Jinping and Donald Trump hold a scheduled, face-to-face bilateral meeting with their official delegations no later than September 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on official statements from the White House or the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or on credible reporting of the meeting by two or more independent international news organizations (for example Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, The New York Times). A mere handshake, group photo, or being at the same multilateral event counts only if those sources explicitly describe the encounter as a bilateral meeting. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 28, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against rfi.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 50%, based on 230 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current geopolitical climate and both leaders' priorities, a formal bilateral meeting seems unlikely before the deadline. I'm betting against it.

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