TechResults Jul 26

Will X (formerly Twitter) experience another major outage before July 26, 2026?

28%

Stable · last 24h

📊 105 bettors💎 2.2K at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Jul 26

🤖 Context

This market will resolve to YES if X (formerly Twitter) experiences a major outage, defined as a disruption affecting a significant portion of users, before July 26, 2026. It will resolve to NO if no such outage occurs by that date.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

28%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 72% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: Multiple contemporaneous news reports document a widespread X (formerly Twitter) outage prior to July 26, 2026. Coverage dated June 22, 2026 (PhoneArena, New York Post, Economic Times) cites large spikes of user complaints on Downdetector (PhoneArena reports ~35,659 complaints; NYPost reports spikes near 30,000) and describes broken timelines, login failures and service interruptions across major US cities and other regions. Those independent, same-day accounts satisfy the market’s definition of a major outage occurring before July 26, 2026.

Source: phonearena.com

Key facts

Crowd probability: 28%
Predictions made: 105
Credits staked: 2,239
Comments: 0
Opened: Jun 26, 2026
Closes: Jul 25, 2026
Resolved: Jul 26, 2026
Outcome: Yes
Resolution source: phonearena.com, nypost.com, m.economictimes.com

🔍 Sources

Sources used to resolve this market

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