Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

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YES if Walmart publicly enables Apple Pay acceptance at any U.S. Walmart retail location or on Walmart.com no later than August 31, 2026. Evidence includes a Walmart corporate announcement, updated Walmart store support pages, Apple's merchant acceptance information, or mainstream reporting. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against 9to5mac.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 51%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIf you click on the "sources" link below, the website literally says they're scheduled to have it in Arkansas before the deadline
Walmart's given no signs of enabling Apple Pay before the deadline. They tend to move slowly with payment tech, so I doubt we see it in time.

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93%
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64%
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