Will Wales gain policing, justice and welfare powers?

🤖 Context

YES if, on or after 19:14 UTC on October 2, 2026 and no later than December 31, 2026, there is a public announcement reported by two or more independent national or Welsh news outlets that the UK Government has committed to devolve policing, justice and welfare powers to Wales. Otherwise NO. • The announcement must show transfer of legislative or executive responsibility for policing, justice and welfare to the Welsh Government. • "Commit" means either an explicit UK Government statement (or a Welsh Government statement accepting such a commitment) or the publication/introduction of draft or final legislation, a ministerial order, or a signed intergovernmental agreement that explicitly sets out transfer of competence for all three areas. • Source: Two or more independent national or Welsh news outlets (e.g. BBC, The Guardian, Reuters, ITV, WalesOnline).

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 4, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Jan 3, 2027. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 62%, based on 208 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

62%

Predictions made

208

Credits staked

3,623

Comments

1

Opened

Oct 2, 2026

Closes

Oct 4, 2026

Expected resolution

Jan 3, 2027

Resolution source

bbc.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 4, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Jan 3, 2027.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 62% and NO 38%, based on 208 predictions and 3.6K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against bbc.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Wales gain policing, justice and welfare powers?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Wales gain policing, justice and welfare powers?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.