Will Volcán de Fuego de Colima produce ashfall in Colima or Jalisco on August 13?

🤖 Context

YES if, during the local calendar day August 13, 2026 (00:00:00–23:59:59, Mexico City local time, UTC-06:00), an official bulletin or public statement from SMN/CONAGUA, CENAPRED, UCOL-CUEV, or the civil protection authorities of Colima or Jalisco, or explicit reporting in at least two independent reputable news outlets, states that ashfall (explicitly described as "caída de ceniza", "ashfall" or tephra deposition) from Volcán de Fuego de Colima was observed on the ground in one or more named municipalities of Colima or Jalisco. Reports that mention only gas, vapor or exhalations without ash deposition do not count. Reports from SMN/CONAGUA or UCOL-CUEV are preferred. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 13, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 14, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 25%, based on 7 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

25%

Predictions made

7

Credits staked

196

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 13, 2026

Closes

Aug 13, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 14, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 13, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 14, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 25% and NO 75%, based on 7 predictions and 196 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Volcán de Fuego de Colima produce ashfall in Colima or Jalisco on August 13?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Volcán de Fuego de Colima produce ashfall in Colima or Jalisco on August 13?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.