Will Volcán de Colima produce ashfall in the south-southwest zone of Jalisco?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than 09:00 on September 8, 2026 (Central Time), an official Mexican agency (for example SMN/CONAGUA or CENAPRED) or the Universidad de Colima (UCOL-CUEV) publicly confirms that Volcán de Colima produced an exhalation that deposited volcanic ash in the south-southwest zone of Jalisco. YES also if at least two independent reputable news organizations report ashfall in that Jalisco zone attributed to Colima before that time. Otherwise NO. Reports that describe only gas or steam, or ash aloft without deposition, do not count as ashfall.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 57%, based on 12 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

57%

Predictions made

12

Credits staked

139

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 8, 2026

Closes

Sep 8, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 8, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 57% and NO 43%, based on 12 predictions and 139 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Volcán de Colima produce ashfall in the south-southwest zone of Jalisco?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Volcán de Colima produce ashfall in the south-southwest zone of Jalisco?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.