Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

94%
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66%
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YES if Arsenal Football Club, the player's then-current club, or the Premier League publishes an official announcement or registration showing Victor Osimhen has joined Arsenal, either on a permanent transfer or on loan, and Arsenal's official site or the Premier League registration pages list him as an Arsenal player with an effective date no later than 23:00 on August 31, 2026. Explicit pre-contracts that only take effect after 23:00 on August 31, 2026 do not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lequipe.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 66%, based on 41 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timing and no official announcements yet, I doubt Osimhen will join Arsenal before the deadline. The pressure is on, but Arsenal will likely focus elsewhere.

94%
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83%
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97%
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43%
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22%
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27%
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