Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

31%
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44%
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YES if, no later than 00:00 on August 12, 2026, any federal judge (Juzgado de Distrito) issues a written provisional suspension that on its face requires the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México to stop, postpone, or refrain from applying the 'examen de control' to the claimant(s) or to the examined group. Verification will use the Federal Judiciary of Mexico's (Poder Judicial de la Federación) public docket, UNAM's official statements, or independent media reporting. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against politica.expansion.mx, eluniversal.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 44%, based on 8 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven today's date, there’s not enough time for a federal judge to issue a suspension. UNAM likely proceeds with the exam as planned; it’s a no for me.

31%
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31%
Stable · last 24h

72%
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19%
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42%
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20%
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