Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

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YES if UNAM conducts at least one in-person 'examen de control' session for aspirantes selected for licenciatura on any date from August 12, 2026 through August 19, 2026 inclusive, using Mexico City local dates. The market will use UNAM official communications (Rectoría or Dirección General de Comunicación Social) or reporting in two or more independent major Mexican national news outlets (for example Expansión, El Universal, Reforma, Milenio) to determine this. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeline, it's likely UNAM will hold in-person sessions. They often adapt to circumstances, and the window is open for announcements just ahead. I’d bet on a YES.

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