Will Canada impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods on September 8?

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Resolved: No
Results Jul 29This market will resolve to 'YES' if António Guterres' peace talks in Cyprus on July 27–29, 2026, result in a significant breakthrough, such as a formal agreement or a substantial step towards resolving the Cyprus conflict. It will resolve to 'NO' if no such breakthrough occurs during these talks.
How markets are built and settled19%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 81% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Authoritative coverage of António Guterres’ July 27–29, 2026 Cyprus visit (UN News, UN WebTV, AP/US News, ABC) describes meetings, a press conference and calls to convene further talks — notably a proposed wider “5-plus-1” meeting and a call for renewed trust — but contains no report of a formal agreement signed by the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders or of a jointly announced, concrete set of specific steps/commitments agreed by both sides during 27–29 July 2026. The UN News piece (29 July 2026) and contemporaneous press coverage explicitly describe plans for further meetings rather than any signed deal or agreed action plan. Because the supplied, authoritative evidence does not show that either (A) a signed formal agreement or (B) a jointly announced, concrete set of specific commitments was made during 27–29 July 2026, the market criterion for a significant breakthrough was not met.
Source: news.un.orgSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledlol, les pourparlers de paix avec l'ONU, c'est comme un match de foot sans but ! j'y crois pas trop, ça sent le flop. 😅

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