Will Russia publicly announce a new general or partial military mobilization?

38%
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30%
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YES if no later than October 15, 2026 the Landtag of Saxony‑Anhalt holds a formal vote that elects Ulrich Siegmund as Minister‑President, and this is reported by two or more independent German national news outlets and shown in the Landtag's published vote record or an official Landtag press release. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tagesschau.de. For now, the crowd puts YES at 30%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the time left and recent political dynamics, it's likely that Siegmund will get the vote he needs in the Landtag before the deadline. He has the backing to make it happen.

38%
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79%
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39%
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79%
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22%
Stable · last 24h

72%
+26% last 24h
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