🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 12
Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?
68%
Stable · last 24h
195 bets · 4.9K credits1
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PoliticsOpened Jul 22 · Results Aug 6
Will Trump's approval top 43% on Aug 5, 2026?
45%
Stable · last 24h
📊 118 bettors💎 4.5K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Aug 6🤖 Context
YES if VoteHub reports Donald Trump's job‑approval 30‑day "Approve" average for Aug 5, 2026 as strictly greater than 43.0% when the VoteHub polls page is fetched by the resolver at or after 12:00 AM EDT on Aug 6, 2026. If VoteHub does not show a numeric 30‑day "Approve" average for that date or the polls page is inaccessible at resolution, the market resolves NO. A displayed value equal to 43% (or 43.0%) is not greater than 43 and therefore resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No45%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 55% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Independent approval trackers for August 5, 2026 all show Trump’s approve share in the mid-to-high 30s (Nate Silver 38.1%, FiftyPlusOne 36.2%), and the market’s own VoteHub live average is ~37.9%. Therefore a 30‑day Approve average on that date could not have been strictly greater than 43.0%.
Source: natesilver.netKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 45%
- Predictions made
- 118
- Credits staked
- 4,519
- Comments
- 3
- Opened
- Jul 22, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 5, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 6, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- natesilver.net, fiftyplusone.news, votehub.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 3 comments
- 🔥@maydrick💠Bet No· 100 💎
Highly unlikely. Public opinion does not like his stance on Iran.
- 💀@polla.king🥈Bet No· 90 💎
Damn, of course not🗣️🗣️
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 4 💎
no way trump hits 43% by then. even his biggest fans are kinda over it. 😂
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