Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

77%
Stable · last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h
YES if official public advisories, the NHC or CPHC best-track, or the NHC/CPHC final Tropical Cyclone Report state that the system named Moke reached 1‑minute sustained winds of at least 74 mph (Saffir–Simpson Category 1) at any time no later than 00:00 on August 26, 2026. Consistent contemporaneous national or local news reporting that quotes those official statements also counts. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 42%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just days left until the resolution, Moke will need some serious last-minute strength to hit hurricane status. Current winds are well below 74 mph, so I doubt it.

77%
Stable · last 24h

31%
Stable · last 24h

39%
Stable · last 24h

74%
+12% last 24h

81%
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48%
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