Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

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YES if an operational advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or another official operational advisory, or contemporaneous mainstream news quoting such advisories, explicitly states that the cyclone identified in advisories as Lala reached maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph (Saffir‑Simpson Category 1 or higher) at any time no later than 12:00 on August 16, 2026 (HST). If advisories declare the original Lala dissipated and a later cyclone is named separately, that later cyclone only counts if an advisory explicitly links it to the original Lala. Post‑season reanalysis that changes intensity after the cutoff does not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 60%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledLala's winds are currently around 60 mph, so it’s unlikely to reach hurricane strength in the next few hours. The window is closing fast with no advisories indicating a shift.

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