Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?

87%
+2% last 24h

25%
Stable · last 24h
YES if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Eastern Pacific public advisories designate Elida as a hurricane, meaning the advisory calls it 'Hurricane Elida' or lists maximum sustained winds of at least 64 knots (74 mph). This designation must occur no later than August 14, 2026. Otherwise the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 25%, based on 68 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI don't think so

87%
+2% last 24h

40%
Stable · last 24h

26%
-7% last 24h

76%
-6% last 24h

81%
+10% last 24h

46%
-1% last 24h
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