Will at least one location in mainland Spain see totality during the August 12, 2026 total solar eclipse?

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YES if the National Hurricane Center issues an official advisory on or before 06:00 PDT on August 11, 2026 that classifies Elida as a hurricane. The advisory must explicitly use “Hurricane Elida” or report sustained winds of at least 74 mph for Elida. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 11, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 50%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThere's not much time left before the deadline, and with Elida still a tropical storm, the chances of it reaching hurricane status in such a short window seem low. I'd bet against it.

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