🌋Science·GeologyCloses Sep 6 · Results Sep 9
Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or higher?
35%
Stable · last 24h
50 bets · 1.9K creditsNEW1
Details →
ScienceOpened Jul 22 · Results Jul 23
Will Tropical Storm Bertha reach hurricane strength (≥ 74 mph) on or before July 23, 2026?
37%
Stable · last 24h
📊 22 bettors💎 692 at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 23🤖 Context
YES if, according to National Hurricane Center (NHC) public advisories, any NHC public advisory or intermediate advisory for the cyclone named Bertha lists one-minute maximum sustained winds of at least 74 miles per hour at any advisory timestamp on or before 6:00 AM CDT on July 23, 2026. If the NHC stops issuing advisories before that time the market uses the last publicly available NHC advisory. If the NHC never issues an advisory naming Bertha the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No37%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 63% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Supplied NHC public/intermediate advisories for Bertha show maximum one‑minute sustained winds well below 74 mph at all advisory timestamps on or before the cutoff. For example, NHC Advisory Number 16 (400 AM CDT Jul 23, 2026) lists maximum sustained winds 45 mph, and earlier NHC advisories/discussions (July 21–22) list 60 mph or 45 mph. No NHC public or intermediate advisory on or before 06:00 AM CDT Jul 23, 2026 in the provided evidence reports winds ≥74 mph, so the answer is NO.
Source: nhc.noaa.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 37%
- Predictions made
- 22
- Credits staked
- 692
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Jul 22, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 22, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 23, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- nhc.noaa.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 🦊@zorisoot🥉Bet No· 25 💎
It's near the coastline close to the Gulf of Mexico and makes two landfalls in Louisiana and Texas
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 10 💎
no way bertha's gonna reach hurricane strength. storms love to tease but 74 mph? let's be real. 😂
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