ScienceOpened Jul 24 · Results Jul 26

Will Tropical Depression Siete‑E become a hurricane by 6:00 AM on July 26, 2026?

26%

Stable · last 24h

📊 4 bettors💎 40 at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Jul 26

🤖 Context

YES if any official 'Aviso de Ciclón Tropical' advisory published by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) on its official website, with an issue timestamp at or before 6:00 AM on July 26, 2026 (SMN local time), explicitly classifies Tropical Depression Siete‑E as a 'Huracán' (any category) or reports maximum sustained winds of at least 119 km/h. Otherwise NO. If SMN issues a formal correction withdrawing or superseding the advisory used for resolution, the corrected SMN advisory closest to the resolution time will be authoritative.

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How this market resolved

Yes

26%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 74% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: SMN's official 'Aviso de Ciclón Tropical' page (Emisión: 2026-07-25 09:00) for the system that began as Depresión Tropical Siete‑E (now identified as Tormenta Tropical Genevieve) includes a Pronóstico table that explicitly classifies the system as a 'Huracán' in forecast entries (for example 25/18h: “Huracán categoría 1” with vientos 120 km/h sustained) and lists later forecast sustained winds ≥119 km/h. That advisory was published on 2026-07-25, which is before the 2026-07-26 06:00 (SMN local) cutoff, so the condition in the question is met.

Source: smn.conagua.gob.mx