Will tropical cyclone Marie reach Category 1 hurricane strength?

🤖 Context

YES if, at any time no later than 06:00 on September 4, 2026, an operational advisory or public statement from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA‑SMN) or the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC/NOAA) reports that the system named Marie had maximum sustained winds meeting Saffir‑Simpson Category 1 or higher, i.e. sustained winds of at least 119 km/h or 74 mph. YES also if multiple independent mainstream news outlets report Marie reached hurricane intensity citing those agencies. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 2, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 4, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 72%, based on 8 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

72%

Predictions made

8

Credits staked

97

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 1, 2026

Closes

Sep 2, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 4, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 2, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 4, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 72% and NO 28%, based on 8 predictions and 97 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will tropical cyclone Marie reach Category 1 hurricane strength?” real-money betting?

No. “Will tropical cyclone Marie reach Category 1 hurricane strength?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.