Will Tropical Cyclone Iselle reach hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher)?

🤖 Context

YES if, at any advisory time on or before 18:00 on August 24, 2026, an authoritative meteorological agency, preferably the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) or Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional / CONAGUA‑SMN, issues an advisory or bulletin explicitly classifying Tropical Cyclone Iselle as a hurricane (Saffir–Simpson Category 1 or higher) or reports sustained winds meeting that threshold. If neither NHC nor SMN uses the word "hurricane" by that deadline, the market resolves YES only if two or more major independent news organizations (for example AP, Reuters, EFE, AFP, El Universal, Milenio, La Jornada, or CNN en Español) publish unambiguous contemporaneous reports stating Iselle reached hurricane strength on or before the deadline. Otherwise the market resolves NO. Post‑season reanalysis after the deadline does not change the outcome.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 65%, based on 11 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

65%

Predictions made

11

Credits staked

445

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 23, 2026

Closes

Aug 24, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 25, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 65% and NO 35%, based on 11 predictions and 445 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Tropical Cyclone Iselle reach hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher)?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Tropical Cyclone Iselle reach hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher)?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.