Will tropical cyclone Hernan reach hurricane strength, Category 1 or higher?

🤖 Context

YES if an official advisory or update from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) or another recognized meteorological agency explicitly refers to the system Hernan as a "hurricane" (Spanish: "huracán") or assigns it Saffir‑Simpson Category 1 or higher. This must occur no later than 00:00 on August 18, 2026 (Central Time, UTC−6). Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 70%, based on 2 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

70%

Predictions made

2

Credits staked

25

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 14, 2026

Closes

Aug 18, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 18, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 70% and NO 30%, based on 2 predictions and 25 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will tropical cyclone Hernan reach hurricane strength, Category 1 or higher?” real-money betting?

No. “Will tropical cyclone Hernan reach hurricane strength, Category 1 or higher?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.