🚀Science·SpaceCloses Sep 9
Will the Soyuz 2.1b carrying Progress MS‑35 lift off from Baikonur Site 31/6 on September 9?
27%
-8% last 24h
1174 bets · 37.9K credits3
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ScienceOpened Jul 26 · Results Jul 27
Will Tropical Cyclone Genevieve reach Category 4 (≥130 mph) by 4:00 AM PDT on July 27, 2026?
75%
Stable · last 24h
📊 17 bettors💎 202 at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 27🤖 Context
YES if the National Hurricane Center publishes any Public Advisory or Intermediate Advisory on its website reporting Tropical Cyclone Genevieve with maximum 1-minute sustained winds of at least 130 mph at any advisory timestamp on or before 4:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time on July 27, 2026. Otherwise NO. If an advisory that meets ≥130 mph is later explicitly corrected or removed on the National Hurricane Center website before 4:00 AM PDT on July 27, 2026, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes75%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 75% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The NHC published a Public Advisory on Hurricane Genevieve (Advisory Number 12) at 0900 UTC on July 27, 2026 that states “MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH,” which is ≥130 mph. The NHC wind-speed product for 0900 UTC also lists 140 kt (160 mph). 0900 UTC (July 27) is before the 1100 UTC (4:00 AM PDT) cutoff, so the NHC did report ≥130 mph in a Public Advisory prior to the deadline.
Source: nhc.noaa.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 75%
- Predictions made
- 17
- Credits staked
- 202
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 26, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 27, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 27, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- nhc.noaa.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
oh, it’s gonna hit 130 mph. these storms love to show off. 😏
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