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Will the Soyuz 2.1b carrying Progress MS‑35 lift off from Baikonur Site 31/6 on September 9?
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1123 bets · 36.6K credits3
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ScienceOpened Jul 26 · Results Jul 27
Will Tropical Cyclone Genevieve be Category 4 at 6:00 AM on July 27 (Mexico time)?
36%
Stable · last 24h
📊 12 bettors💎 140 at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 27🤖 Context
YES if the official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) "Aviso de Ciclón Tropical" page lists the forecast entry for Genevieve at 6:00 AM on July 27, 2026 (Mexico local time) explicitly as "Huracán categoría 4". Otherwise NO. If SMN discontinues publishing advisories for Genevieve before that forecast time, this market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No36%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 64% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The official SMN 'Aviso de Ciclón Tropical' page (Emisión: 2026-07-25) includes a forecast table showing the 27/06h (2026-07-27 06:00 local) entry explicitly labeled as "Huracán categoría 3"; the 27/18h entry is labeled "Huracán categoría 4". Therefore the 06:00 entry is not listed as "Huracán categoría 4".
Source: smn.conagua.gob.mxKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 36%
- Predictions made
- 12
- Credits staked
- 140
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 26, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 27, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 27, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- smn.conagua.gob.mx
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
nah, i doubt genevieve will hit cat 4. storm’s got to bring the drama, but usually it just fizzles out like last weekend’s plans. 😅
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